Johnson, Chris; Jeunemaitre, Alain --- "Risk and the Role of Scientific Input for Contingency Planning: A Response to the April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull Volcano Eruption" [2011] ELECD 912; in Alemanno, Alberto (ed), "Governing Disasters" (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2011)

Book Title: Governing Disasters

Editor(s): Alemanno, Alberto

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

ISBN (hard cover): 9780857935724

Section: Chapter 4

Section Title: Risk and the Role of Scientific Input for Contingency Planning: A Response to the April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull Volcano Eruption

Author(s): Johnson, Chris; Jeunemaitre, Alain

Number of pages: 14

Extract:

4. Risk and the role of scientific input
for contingency planning:
a response to the April 2010
Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption
Chris Johnson and Alain Jeunemaitre

4.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter focuses on the insights that the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in
April 2010 provided for the coordination of scientific input to decision-
making across the European aviation industries. Volcanic eruptions are
part of a wider class of natural risks, including earthquakes, pandemics,
and regional fires etc., that have to be managed collectively. These, in turn,
form a sub-set of adverse events that also include man-made catastrophes,
such as terrorist attacks, pollution etc. Natural and man-made risks are
collectively known as contingency events. They are characterized by rela-
tively low expected probabilities but extremely high potential consequences.
The public increasingly expect commercial and regulatory agencies to
adopt a precautionary approach to such events. These expectations extend
not just from the time before any incident occurs but also under the stress
and time pressure of decision-making during a contingency. If we are to
meet these expectations, it is important that operational decision-making is
informed by accurate scientific information on a wide range of issues. It
should not be shaped by ad hoc political pressures, although these will
inevitably play a role.
The assessment and management of risk depends upon a clear scientific
understanding of the contingency under consideration. Without significant
prior consultation, Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs), regulators
and government agencies are forced to gather what scientific ...