Briggs, Chad Michael --- "Abrupt Environmental Changes: Scenario Planning for Catastrophic Security Risks" [2011] ELECD 919; in Alemanno, Alberto (ed), "Governing Disasters" (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2011)

Book Title: Governing Disasters

Editor(s): Alemanno, Alberto

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

ISBN (hard cover): 9780857935724

Section: Chapter 11

Section Title: Abrupt Environmental Changes: Scenario Planning for Catastrophic Security Risks

Author(s): Briggs, Chad Michael

Number of pages: 16

Extract:

11. Abrupt environmental changes:
scenario planning for catastrophic
security risks
Chad Michael Briggs

Environment risk assessment was originally developed largely for con-
trolled situations, and despite significant advances in methodologies over
the years, still reflects limitations inherent both in our scientific understand-
ings of events, and psychological limitations when dealing with catastro-
phes. The risks to operational and strategic planning often stem from a lack
of experience with new or novel conditions, and proceed with assumptions
that future projections will look very much like the present (March, 1988).
It is therefore not surprising that when confronted with abrupt changes
in operating assumptions, organizations operating under standardized
methodologies and assumptions are often unable to respond effectively.
Common reactions tend to be inadequate, and those who are responsible
often suffer from paralysis until more information can be made available. It
is not widely understood that complex systems often contain specific
vulnerabilities to change, particularly if such changes are unanticipated
and appear suddenly.
The Eyjafjallajökull eruption of 2010 introduced abrupt environmental
changes to European airspace, forcing large-scale cancellations of opera-
tions and disruption of international transport (Peterson, 2010). The
indirect impacts of the volcanic ash plumes were also significant, resulting
in economic damages to economies and financial stresses on specific
industries. Responses from multiple affected stakeholders were disjointed,
resulting from a lack of advanced planning, adequate communication
channels between those in a position to respond, and the much needed trust
(among empowered decision-makers) to deliberate adequately upon which
risk values ...