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Legal Education Review |
AN OVERSUPPLY OF LAW GRADUATES? PUTTING THE STATISTICS
IN CONTEXT
CHRISTINE PARKER*
INTRODUCTION
In the last 12 months there have been a spate of
stories in the press warning us of an impending “glut” of
lawyers.1 The most frequently quoted “fact”
is that there are as many law students as there are lawyers. Professor Bob
Williams
of Monash University has warned that the growing number of law students
is a “potential catastrophe”,2 and the
Queensland Attorney-General has predicted that “we will end up in the same
situation as California, where large numbers
of lawyers are wandering around ...
looking to create work” by “ambulance chasing” or
touting.3
But further research into statistical
trends for Australian lawyers and students indicates that the real story is more
complex and
less alarming than the headlines suggest.4
First, careful collection of statistics shows that it is simply not true that
there are almost as many law students as lawyers in
Australia. Secondly, the
argument that there are too many law students is fundamentally flawed because it
assumes that all law students
become lawyers, without sufficiently defining the
term “lawyers”. It also fails to take account of graduation rates,
attrition from the profession and the number of graduates who do not remain in
the law. Finally, reports of the student “glut”
have taken an
ahistorical approach to the statistics and failed to examine the past ratios of
students to lawyers.
The purpose of this paper is to set out the statistics
as accurately as possible for analysis and planning. Accurate statistics on
law
students and where they go after graduation, as well as the composition of the
legal industry, are necessary in order to plan
for legal education and to make
judgments on the future prospects of law graduates.5
“LAWYERS”
Predictions of lawyer gluts seem to assume that almost
all law graduates become “lawyers”. Law graduates, however, take
a
variety of different types of jobs. The “lawyer” statistics that are
used to support claims of excessive numbers of
students are frequently unclear
about which of these jobs are included.
In fact the term
“lawyers” is notoriously difficult to
define.6 For present purposes, it is most useful to
define “lawyers” as people recognised as legal practitioners by the
professional
associations.7 The main advantage of such
a definition is that statistics collected in the same way in different states
and over time by professional
associations can be
used.8 It is also likely to fit both public and
professional perceptions of who lawyers are. It covers all solicitors and
barristers in
traditional private practice. However, membership of such
associations will normally depend only on possession of a current practising
certificate; there will be some members who have a certificate, but do not
actually practise.9 Most government legal officers will
not be included as they do not normally need a practising
certificate.10
The professional association with
the most comprehensive membership in Australia is the Law Council of Australia,
an umbrella organisation
for all the State and Territory professional
associations.11 Law Council of Australia membership
figures were available for 1975, 1982 and
1986– 1992.12 For 1947,1961,1966,1971 and 1981
census figures for lawyers are available.13 The census
figures are calculated on a similar basis to Law Council of Australia membership
since they include people working as
barristers and solicitors. But the census
statistics also include Judges and magistrates, who are not considered members
of the profession
by the profession (including the Law Council of Australia),
and “legal officers”.14 Therefore the
census figures are slightly more inclusive than the Law Council of Australia
data.
It is also necessary to examine how the number of lawyers increases
over time. The legal profession will not remain static. One possible
indicator
of the future rate of growth of the profession is its growth in the past.
LAW STUDENTS
Reliable data on the number of Australian law
students is not readily available. All the published series of higher education
data
put law and legal studies students together. 15
Many law students complete another degree at the same time as they are studying
for their law degree: Some universities categorise
combined degree students
according to their non-law degree, while others categorise them as law students.
Many of the student figures
quoted recently are probably inaccurate because they
include legal studies students or do not include combined degree
students.16 Given the fact that people are concerned
about a possible glut of lawyers, it seems more pertinent to count all students
enrolled
in bachelor law degree programs which lead to a qualification for legal
practice.
Again the statistics must be placed in their historical
perspective. Newspaper reports of the law student “glut” rarely
compare the current student to lawyer ratios with previous years. Such an
examination may find that a large number of law students
have always had to be
recruited to fill a smaller demand in the profession, because of the propensity
of law graduates to find work
outside legal practice.
Since no published
series of statistics counted law students in an accurate way, Department of
Employment, Education and Training
(DEET) computer records of all students in
all courses in all Universities were used to collect the student statistics for
1989–1992.17 The Pearce Report collected
the same data for the years 1980 to 1984 direct from the Law Schools
themselves.18 A database collected by Professor Western
of the University of Queensland gives a figure for 1965 collected in the same
way. The
number of law students for 1993 was collected by asking every law
school in Australia how many LLB students they had in June
1993.19
Since these more accurate statistics do not
cover a wide enough period to be useful in any comparison with the statistics
for lawyers,
1950, 1960 and 1975 to 1987 figures from Universities
Commission/CTEC/DEET publications have also been used in some tables. These
statistics will include some legal studies students, but do not include many
combined degree students in their first three years
of study. Therefore they are
probably too low.20
This paper ignores people who
are seeking legal qualifications by means other than enrolling in University
degree courses. In New
South Wales there were still almost 5000 students
registered in Admission Board courses in 1992.21 But
reliable figures for Admission Board enrollees throughout Australia are not
available. The fact that many are not actively pursuing
their courses and a
large percentage may never finish further confounds consideration of Admission
Board enrollees.22 Of those who are actively pursuing
their courses, many may already have employment in legal practice, for example
as five year articled
clerks.
RATIO OF LAW STUDENTS TO LAWYERS
Using the methods and sources described above,
statistics for lawyers and law students from 1947 to 1993 can be compiled. Table
1
sets out all the accurate statistics that are available.
According to the
Law Council of Australia there were approximately 27 900 lawyers in
Australia in 1992. There were 15 516 LLB students,
56% of the number of
lawyers. In 1993 there were 29 165 lawyers and 17 108 students, 59% of
the number of lawyers. There are clearly
not, therefore, anywhere near as many
law students as lawyers. However, there are still a large number of law students
and at first
glance the ratio of students to lawyers suggests an oversupply.
TABLE 1: Numbers of Australian Law Students and Practitioners 1947–1993
Year
|
LLB Students
|
Practitioners
|
1947
|
5 711
|
|
1950
|
1 466+
|
|
1960
|
2 257+
|
|
1961
|
6 736
|
|
1965
|
4 076
|
|
1966
|
6 242
|
|
1974
|
7 518+
|
|
1975
|
7 917+
|
12 580
|
1976
|
8 249+
|
12 909
|
1977
|
8 315+
|
|
1978
|
8 249+
|
|
1979
|
8 225+
|
|
1980
|
11 000
|
|
1981
|
11 467
|
15 524
|
1982
|
11 654
|
16 400
|
1983
|
11 535
|
16 100
|
1984
|
11 254
|
17 000
|
1985
|
17 100
|
|
1986
|
17 500
|
|
1987
|
18700
|
|
1988
|
22 400
|
|
1989
|
11 297
|
25 000
|
1990
|
12 830
|
25 800
|
1991
|
13 370
|
27 000
|
1992
|
15 516
|
27 900
|
1993
|
17 108
|
29 165
|
But although the 1993 ratio of 59 students for every 100 lawyers appears quite large, it is not unusual compared with other years. Table 2 shows the ratio of law students to practitioners in the years between 1965 and 1993 for which an accurate figure for both is available. Figure 1 puts that information in graph form to make the trend easier to see.
FIGURE 1: Lawyers and Students 1965–1993
TABLE 2: LLB Students, Lawyers and Ratio 1965–1993
Year
|
LLB Students
|
Lawyers
|
Students as Percentage of Lawyers
|
1965
|
4 076
|
6 242
|
66%
|
1975
|
7 917
|
12 580
|
63%
|
1976
|
8 249
|
12 909
|
63%
|
1981
|
11 467
|
15 524
|
71 %
|
1982
|
11 654
|
16 400
|
71%
|
1983
|
11 535
|
16 100
|
71 %
|
1984
|
11 254
|
17 000
|
66%
|
1989
|
11 297
|
25 000
|
45%
|
1990
|
12 830
|
25 800
|
50%
|
1991
|
13 370
|
27 000
|
50%
|
1992
|
15 516
|
27 900
|
56%
|
1993
|
17 108
|
29 165
|
59%
|
Thus the ratio of students to practitioners has averaged almost two students for every three practitioners since around 1965. Before that time, many practitioners would have qualified by means of Admission Board courses so there were many more “students” than the figures for University enrollees show.23
GRADUATIONS
Even if there were as many law students as practitioners and every graduate became a lawyer, graduation rates and retirements from the profession would mean that it would take some years for the number of practitioners to double. Some reports give an impression that 1993’s students will represent 17 108 desperate, employment-seeking graduates in 1994. In fact, most will take four to six years to complete their courses. Some will never complete. For example in 1991, there were 13 370 law degree students enrolled, but only 2 500 completed their degrees. Table 3 shows the number of course completions and total number of students enrolled for 1988 to 1991.24
TABLE 3: Numbers of Students and Course Completions 1988–1991
Year
|
Completions
|
Total Enrolments
|
1988
|
2 171
|
?
|
1989
|
2 245
|
11 297
|
1990
|
2 330
|
12,830
|
1991
|
2 500
|
13 370
|
At this rate, it will take five to six years for all current law enrollees to graduate and seek work.25
LAW GRADUATES AND THE LEGAL PROFESSION?
Yet the argument that there are too many law
students is seriously flawed at an even more fundamental level. It has already
been emphasised
that not all graduates go into private practice. But this is
implied by comparisons between the number of students and the number
of private
practitioners.
The Law Council of Australia figure of 29 165 lawyers in
1993 includes private solicitors and barristers. But it does not include
many
law graduates with legal jobs in government, publishing, community legal
centres, teaching, corporations, or on the bench. Nor
does it include the many
jobs law graduates have that are not of an essentially legal nature.
A
substantial proportion of graduates will never go into private or even
government practice. A further proportion only remain in
practice for a limited
period. While no major longitudinal studies on this issue have been reported in
Australia, a number of smaller
studies are available.26
The Graduate Careers Council of Australia Graduate Destination Surveys
for 1991 and 1992 show that 85.9% (1991) and 85.1% (1992) of the previous
year’s graduates who were in fulltime work were
“lawyers”.27
In 1987, the Pearce Report
surveyed law graduates of 2 to 6 years standing. 85% reported that they did work
of an “essentially
legal nature” in their first
job.28 But only 64% had a job in private legal practice
as their first job, while a further 13% worked for the
government.29 After 2–6 years only 56% were
working in the private legal profession while a further 19% were working as
lawyers in government.
Some of the rest described themselves as doing work of an
essentially legal nature. However only those in private practice and a
few of
those in government would hold practising certificates and therefore be
“lawyers” in the sense that term has been
defined here. Table 4 sets
out these findings.30
Table 4: Pearce Survey: 1979, 1980, 1982 and
1983 Graduates in 1985 (%)
Type of Work
|
First Job
|
1985 Job
|
Work of an Essentially Legal Nature
|
|
|
Private legal practice
|
64
|
56
|
Government
|
13
|
19
|
Other
|
8
|
11
|
TOTAL
|
85
|
86
|
Work Not of an Essentially Legal Nature
|
||
Accountancy
|
3
|
2
|
Other profession
|
1
|
1
|
Government
|
5
|
3
|
Other private industry
|
3
|
4
|
Other
|
2
|
2
|
TOTAL
|
14
|
14
|
Not Applicable
|
1
|
2
|
TOTAL
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
(1 755)
|
(1 755)
|
TABLE 5: Employment of 1976–1991 Law Graduates
as at 30 April the Following Year
|
1976
|
1977
|
1979
|
1980
|
1988
|
1989
|
1990
|
1991
|
FURTHER STUDIES
|
32.8
|
37.4
|
46.5
|
51.4
|
38.6
|
39.2
|
36.7
|
33.8
|
Professional Practice
|
44.3
|
42.2
|
30.8
|
26.1
|
34.3
|
34.6
|
43.7
|
|
Government Service
|
7.8
|
8.7
|
8.8
|
10.0
|
11.0
|
10.1
|
9.7
|
|
Other private/non-profit
|
2.3
|
2.6
|
4.3
|
3.3
|
4.8
|
4.0
|
|
|
Teaching
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
1.7
|
0.6
|
1.2
|
0.9
|
|
Other
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
0.4
|
1.0
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL FULLTIME EMPLOYMENT
|
55.7
|
54.6
|
45.7
|
41.7
|
51.2
|
50.7
|
54.6
|
57.8
|
TOTAL FULLTIME EMPLOYMENT OR STUDY
|
88.5
|
92.0
|
92.2
|
93.1
|
89.8
|
89.9
|
91.3
|
91.6
|
SEEKING EMPLOYMENT
|
5.7
|
4.3
|
2.2
|
3.1
|
2.2
|
1.9
|
1.7
|
2.2
|
UNAVAILABLE FULLTIME EMPLOYMENT OR STUDY (INCLUDES PART TIME
EMPLOYED)
|
3.9
|
1.7
|
3.2
|
2.0
|
5.0
|
2.2
|
1.2
|
3.0
|
OVERSEAS
|
1.8
|
2.0
|
2.5
|
1.8
|
3.1
|
4.5
|
3.6
|
4.1
|
TOTAL
|
100%
(934) |
100%
(1115) |
100%
(1077) |
100%
(1140) |
100%
(1173) |
100%
(1259) |
100%
(1233) |
100%
(1392) |
This is consistent with Weisbrot’s analysis of 1981 Australian Census
data which showed that only 72% of Australians with legal
qualifications worked
directly in the law. After 20 years of work, the figure dropped to
66%.31 The percentages of “lawyers” holding
practising certificates would be even lower. These figures probably show a
higher
separation rate from work of “an essentially legal nature”
than Pearce’s because they include law graduates from
a longer span of
time.
It appears then that only less than 60% of law graduates are
practitioners or “lawyers” as defined by the existence of
a
practising certificate a few years after graduation. The percentage lessens as
time goes on. Up to 20% are likely to have legal
jobs in government. The fact
that law graduates frequently take other jobs allows for some flexibility.
Numbers of law students do
not have to be strictly controlled in line with the
current demand for private practitioners.
Employment of Law Graduates
A conclusion that the recent ratio of students to
lawyers has not been too high, is supported by the fact that law graduates have
remained highly employable. Table 5 summarises figures from the Graduate Careers
Council of Australia which show that law graduates
still enjoy some of the
highest rates of employment of any discipline.32 In
1992, 96.3% of the previous year’s law graduates were employed or in
fulltime study six months after graduation, second
only to medicine and
pharmacy, and far above the national average of 70% for all
graduates.33
The Commonwealth Department of
Education, Employment and Training has also commented on this situation, More
expensive graduates per
unit in the sciences and technologies have lower
utilisation ratios than law graduates. The twist in the tale is that high
employment
outcomes are evident in the field of law that public policy has
sought to limit whereas employment outcomes are low in fields such
as
engineering that public policy has sought to increase. DEET’s analysis of
structural change trends over 1986 to 1991, moreover,
indicates that supply
should be at least maintained at current levels if not increased through to
2001 in the very fields that some
would suggest are tending towards oversupply,
viz. health and diagnostic treatment practitioners, lawyers, accountants and
computer
professionals.34
DEMAND FOR LAWYERS
It is difficult to predict what the future demand
for lawyers will be. The forecasters of a lawyer glut see the issue as whether
the
Australian legal profession can continue to sustain this level of growth.
But their vision is too narrow. Demand for lawyers is rapidly
becoming
internationalised,35 and it has already been emphasised
that law graduates are employed in many areas other than private practice. In
this context the
issue is really whether all the graduates trained in Australian
law schools will find employment in the world wide
market.36
Even focusing on the demand for law
graduates within Australia, there is evidence to suggest that law graduates will
continue to find
employment. Statistics show that the number of lawyers has been
doubling approximately every twelve years for the last thirty or
forty years.
For example the figure for 1966 doubled in the ten years to 1976. This figure
doubled again around 1988, 12 years later
(see Table 1).
The number of
lawyers has also increased relative to population. Table 6 shows the lawyer to
population ratios for 1947 to 1992 based
on Australian Bureau of Statistics
Census data and estimated resident populations. Overall the number of lawyers
has increased at
a greater rate than the population throughout this century.
TABLE 6: Ratio of Australian Lawyers to Population 1947–1991
Year
|
Lawyers
|
Population
|
Lawyers per 1000 Population
|
1911
|
2 955
|
4 500 000
|
0.66
|
1933
|
4 345
|
6 600 000
|
0.66
|
1947
|
5 711
|
7 600 000
|
0.75
|
1961
|
6 736
|
10 500 000
|
0.64
|
1966
|
6 242
|
11 600 000
|
0.54
|
1971
|
10 299
|
12 700 000
|
0.81
|
1975
|
12 580
|
13 900 000
|
0.91
|
1976
|
12 909
|
14 000 000
|
0.92
|
1981
|
15 524
|
14 900 000
|
1.04
|
1982
|
16 400
|
15 200 000
|
1.08
|
1983
|
16 100
|
15 400 000
|
1.05
|
1984
|
17 000
|
15 600 000
|
1.09
|
1986
|
17 100
|
15 800 000
|
1.08
|
1986
|
17 500
|
16 000 000
|
1.09
|
1987
|
18 700
|
16 300 000
|
1.15
|
1988
|
22 400
|
16 500 000
|
1.36
|
1989
|
25 000
|
16 800 000
|
1.49
|
1990
|
25 800
|
17 000 000
|
1.52
|
1991
|
27 000
|
17 300 000
|
1.56
|
Those who warn of a lawyer glut in the near future believe that supply will
soon outstrip demand. However, demand for lawyers depends
on the needs of the
community and in particular how its economy is organised, rather than just the
size of its population.37 An increase in population is
not necessary to support an increase in lawyers, if other changes in the social
or economic structure
occur. In the past the profession and the number of
students studying law have expanded at the same time.
At a broad level, the
expansion of lawyer numbers is due to the shift to a service-oriented economy
over the last fifty years, and
in particular the huge expansion in business
activity and investment in Australia since the 1950s. For example Mendelsohn and
Lippman
have shown how changes to the structure of the economy and corporate
activities in the 1960s led to the expansion of legal services,
and ultimately
the emergence of the corporate law firm to serve the corporate
sector.38 In addition, growth in the public sector,
especially in administrative law, has led to a growth in government
lawyering.39 The welfare sector has also expanded,
creating more jobs for lawyers in legal aid and community legal
centres.40
The problem is whether the market for
legal services will continue to expand to make room for an increasing number of
new graduates,
at least in the near future. It is clear that some growth in the
legal profession will continue to be necessary as the population
and business
activity grows. But it is difficult to measure present demand or predict future
demand in any more detail. Some researchers
have measured changes in the number
of land transfers and court proceedings in order to determine the need for
lawyers.41 But this assumes a narrow, traditional
conception of a lawyer’s role, and ignores the ingenuity of lawyers in
finding and creating
new markets for their services.42
Lawyers now do much more than the traditional tasks of conveyancing and
court-based litigation and predictions of demand for legal
services must take
this into account. Future demand will also depend on such unpredictable factors
as future economic activity, government
spending priorities and the development
of law by the courts and legislators.43 This is an area
where more research is necessary.
But we do know that for the last 30 years
a ratio of two students to three lawyers has been neither unusual nor
disastrous. The Australian
legal profession has been able to expand to include
many of these graduates. Many others have found employment outside legal
practice
and even outside Australia.
THE EFFECT OF THE NEW LAW SCHOOLS
It has been suggested that since a number of new law
schools have been opened in the last few years, these statistics do not
accurately
reflect the “bulge” in law graduates which is yet to
occur. The real glut will be in a few years time when all the present
law
schools are at steady state and graduating students.
In June 1993 all 25
Australian law schools were contacted and asked for their estimates of numbers
of LLB students for the next five
years, and, in the case of new law schools,
when they expected to reach their steady-state number of students. Twenty-two
responded.
The other three were all established law schools so it was assumed
that they would maintain the same enrolments as 1993 for the next
five years,
and their 1993 enrolments were taken from the Lawasia Directory of Law
Courses compiled in July 1992.44 These figures
suggest that the number of LLB students will reach approximately 20 000 in
1997, by which time all existing law schools
should have reached their steady
state number of students. This is a very rough projection since the law student
figures are only
estimates and do not include any new law schools that open
between now and then. At this rate, even if the number of practitioners
stays
the same, the number of LLB students will still not have equalled the number of
lawyers in 1997.
If the number of practitioners continues to grow at the
same rate for the next four years (1993–1997) as it has in the last
twelve
years (1981–1993)45 the number of practitioners
in 1997 will be 33 712. The ratio of students to lawyers would then be 59%,
the same as it is now. Even
if the number of practitioners grew at half the rate
in the next 4 years as it did in the last twelve years, the number of
practitioners
in 1997 would be 31 439. This would make the percentage of
students to practitioners 64% which is still not out of keeping with the
long term trend.
CONCLUSION
Looking in detail at the ratio of law students to
lawyers reveals the lack of useful research about lawyers and legal education in
Australia. Even basic statistics such as the number of lawyers and law students
have not been collected in a consistent way until
recently, and when statistics
are quoted, the way they were measured is rarely discussed. Little research on
the career paths of
law graduates has been published. While there have been some
attempts to measure demand or need for legal services, little analysis
of trends
in the market for legal services has been attempted.
This lack of knowledge
about the Australian legal labour market means that we do not have a context in
which to explain and understand
the present ratio of students to lawyers. While
59% (1993) appears high, the data collected in this paper suggests that it does
not
necessarily amount to a “glut”. But further research, especially
on the future demand for legal services and graduates
with legal training, is
necessary to draw firm conclusions on whether we are likely to face an
oversupply of law graduates.
* BA LLB, Research Assistant, Law School, Griffith University. Although the
author takes full responsibility for the research reported
here, the idea for
starting the research came from Professor Charles Sampford.
© 1993.
(1993) 4 Legal Educ Rev 255.
1 For example, J Gagliardi, “Queensland faces jobless lawyer glut” Courier Mail February 5 1993, C Jones, “Law dean warns of graduate glut” The Australian September 9 1992; G Thompson, “Jobs will be hard to find in the brave new republic”, Australian Financial Review May 5 1993.
2 Id Jones.
3 Supra note 1, Gagliardi.
4 This is not to discount concerns about the current state of legal education in Australia. Most would agree that the education provided by most Australian law schools could be improved. See C Parker, and C Sampford, The Key to Legal Education: Quality not Quantity, (1993) 67 Law Institute 798. See D Weisbrot, Recent Statistical Trends in Australian Legal Education (1990–91) [1991] LegEdRev 11; 2 Legal Educ Rev 219 at 242–251 for a discussion of the underfunding of Australian law schools, and D Pearce, E Campbell, D E Harding, & Commonwealth Tertiary Education Commission, Australian Law Schools: A Discipline Assessment for the CTEC (Canberra: Australian Government Printing Service, 1987) (“the Pearce Report”) for a report on the failure of Australian legal education. On the same theme, see, J Crawford, The Future of the Public Law Schools (1991) 9 Professional Leg Educ 1.
5 In Australia no-one has been compiling these statistics in a comprehensive way until recently. For example, many of the professional associations do not even keep records of their membership numbers from one year to the next. Recently the Centre for Legal Education in New South Wales has been established to collect and disseminate such statistics, as well as to engage in research and policy development projects relevant to legal education.
6 See, for example, D Weisbrot, Australian Lawyers (Melbourne: Longman Cheshire, 1990) at 57–58, and also R August, The Mythical Kingdom of Lawyers: America Doesn’t Have 70 Percent of the Earth’s Lawyers (1992) Sept ABA 72, for a discussion of the difficulties in collecting statistics on lawyers.
7 This will not include articled clerks who do not yet have a practising certificate.
8 This seems to be the most consistent series of statistics on lawyer numbers available. For example, the lawyer categories in the Australian census data have been defined differently in different years.
9 Some people keep up their registration even after they have left practice.
10 The massive expansion in government lawyering has meant that it is now becoming accepted as a standard form of professional practice. However it is unclear what percentage of government lawyers would be members of professional associations since most are not required to have a practising certificate. For example in Queensland, government counsel have only recently been allowed to join the Bar Association as associate members.
11 Members of each of the State and Territory professional associations automatically become members of the Law Council of Australia.
12 The main difficulty with this source is that since the Law Council of Australia is an umbrella organisation, some of the growth in its membership could be due to expansion of the coverage of the association rather than growth in the actual number of people practising.
13 In 1986 the Census classification widened to include all “lawyers” (23 180) but to exclude Judges. Therefore the 1986 figure cannot compare with the figures from other years.
14 It is not clear what this term includes.
15 For example, the Selected Higher Education Statistics series published by the Universities Commission, Commonwealth Tertiary Education Commission and now the Department of Employment, Education and Training.
16 For example, Weisbrot has not dealt with this issue with respect to his statistics in Australian Lawyers, supra note 6 at 64, and in Recent Statistical Trends in Legal Education, (1990–[1991] LegEdRev 11; 1991) 2 Legal Educ Rev 219.
17 The number of students enrolled at Bond University, a private University, have been added for 1992 and 1993. The figure for Bond University was not available for other years.
18 Pearce Report, supra note 4,448.
19 Official numbers of students for a particular year are usually not available until the following year.
20 This is confirmed by the fact that the 1965 figure from the Selected Higher Education Statistics series published by the Universities Commission is 3039 which is lower than 4076, the figure in Professor Western’s study.
21 A Review of the Barristers and Solicitors Admission Boards Course: Stage One; A Snapshot of the Course in October 1992 (New South Wales: Centre for Legal Education, 1993) Ch 5.
22 See D Weisbrot, Australian Lawyers, supra note 6 at 142. Also, Review of Barristers and Solicitors Admission Boards Course, ibid, found that one third of the enrollees in the course were not actually doing any subject in 1992. This research by the Centre for Legal Education is the first major examination in this area, and no further information is available yet about the progress of enrollees through the course.
23 See Weisbrot, supra note 6 at 142 for a discussion of the proportion of lawyers qualifying by this means in New South Wales. In 1960 72% of new admissions were by Admissions Board courses. By 1978 it was only 29%.
24 Source: Selected Higher Education Statistics, DEET, 1988–1991.
25 See R Freeman, Legal “Cobwebs”: A Recursive Model of the Market for New Lawyers, (1975) 57 The Rev of Economics and Statistics 171, for a discussion of the way this lag between starting law school and entering the job market tends to create a cyclical pattern of shortages and surpluses in the supply of law graduates. It would be worthwhile to examine the surplus of students in the early 1980s and the shortage in the late 1980s from this perspective.
26 There has been a major longitudinal piece of research on law students from 1965 undertaken by DS Anderson, and JS Western, but they have not published any findings on this particular issue. See for example, DS Anderson, JS Western, and PR Boreham, Law and the Making of Legal Practitioners, in Understanding Lawyers (Sydney: Allen and Unwin 1978).
27 The term “lawyers” was not defined. Previous years’ data on the same issue are not useful as law and legal studies students were reported together.
28 This term was not defined.
29 These are percentages of the total sample of graduates, not just those in fulltime work unlike the GCCA figures.
30 Pearce Report: Volume Four, supra note 4 at 74.
31 Weisbrot, supra note 6 at 64.
32 Graduate Careers Council of Australia, Graduate Destination Surveys 1977 to 1991.
33 This may be skewed by the fact that many law graduates do a practical legal training course straight after their degree.
34 Department of Education, Employment and Training, Recent Trends and Current Issues in Higher Education, International Conference on the Transition from Elite to Mass Higher Education, Sydney, 15–18 June 1993, 31.
35 See, for example, L Street, Our Doors Opening Too Slowly (1993) 28 Australian Lawyer 25.
36 This question can also be turned around: Will Australian law schools anticipate and respond to planetary employment skills and knowledge needs for the twenty-first century? This is an issue of the quality of Australian legal education.
37 See T W Beed, I G Campbell, and V R Milligan, Planning Tools and the Growth of the Legal Profession in New South Wales, in R Tomasic (ed), Understanding Lawyers (Sydney: Law Foundation of Australia, and George Allen and Unwin, 1978) at 239, and I Ramsay, What do Lawyers do? Reflections on the Market for Lawyers, (1994) 23 International Journal of the Sociology of Law, forthcoming.
38 O Mendelsohn, and M Lippman, The Emergence of the Corporate Law Firm in Australia[1979] UNSWLawJl 2; , (1979) 3 University of New South Wales Law Journal 78–98. See also R Sander, & H Williams, Why are there so many Lawyers? Perspectives on a Turbulent Market, (1989) Law and Social Inquiry 431, for an explanation of the growth in the number of lawyers in the United States taking into account the shift to a service economy and other factors.
39 See Weisbrot, supra note 6 at 60 for a discussion of the growth of government lawyering. See also J Goldring, & G Hawker, Lawyers in a Government Department: A Report and Suggestions for Further Research, 1985 XLIV Australian Journal of Public Administration 287.
40 Some attempts have been made to measure demand in this area. See for example M Cass, and J Western, Legal Aid and Legal Need (Australia: Commonwealth Legal Aid Commission, 1980) for a discussion of this, and M Cass, and R Sackville, Legal Needs of the Poor: Australian Government Commission of Inquiry into Poverty (Canberra: AGPS, 1975).
41 Nieuwenhuysen & Williams-Wynn, How Labour Markets Work (Melbourne: Longman Cheshire, 1982) and D M Yorke, Some Aspects of the Labour Market for the Legal Profession in Western Australia, (1984) 27 Economic Activity 12.
42 See S Rosen, The Market for Lawyers, (1992) The Journal of Law and Economics, 215 at 224, for an analysis of the legal labour market in the United States.
43 For example in the last thirty years the expansion of administrative law and family law has lead to an expansion of legal services.
44 The Lawasia Directory of Law Courses in the Asia and West Pacific Regions (Centre for Legal Education: Sydney, 1992). It should be noted that some of the 1993 figures collected for numbers of enrolments in this poll differed from those published in the Lawasia Directory. However most disparities were not significant. The others can be explained by the fact that the Lawasia Directory figures sometimes included legal studies students, postgraduate students and legal practice students.
45 This twelve year period covers the recession of
the early 1980s and the boom of the late 1980s.
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